EVIDENCE WEIGHTING VARIANCE
Everyone weighs the same evidence, and nobody weighs it the same.
01 DEFINITION
Condition in which the same material supports a category to different degrees for different people, and what makes the difference is experience that has never been written down anywhere.
02 CONDITIONS
UNCERTAINTY
CONFLICTING
The same material supports the category to different degrees for different readers.
TIME PRESSURE
MODERATE
There is room to weigh and no room to compare weightings with anyone else.
ERROR ASYMMETRY
ASYMMETRIC
Over-weighting and under-weighting one indication fail in opposite directions.
OPERATOR STATE
DEDICATED
The person is doing the weighing and it is theirs alone.
03 WHERE IT APPEARS
MEDICALTwo clinicians reading the same findings reach different confidence in the same category.
PUBLIC SERVICETwo officers weigh the same submitted material differently and both are within the rules.
FINANCETwo reviewers assign different weight to the same indicators of the same risk.
INDUSTRIALTwo engineers read the same symptoms and rank the same causes differently.
EDUCATIONTwo markers apply one rubric and differ on how much each criterion counts.
LOGISTICSTwo controllers weigh the same delay indications differently in deciding what it is.
04 WHERE THIS IS SURFACING
This surfaces wherever classification rests on more than one indication. The rules say which indications count; nothing says how much, and the how much is the whole of the disagreement.
The question it keeps returning to is whether the weighing can be stated at all — writing it down turns judgement into a rule that will be applied where it does not hold, and leaving it unwritten leaves each case to whoever happens to hold it.